[NetBehaviour] Fw: COVID-19

Max Herman maxnmherman at hotmail.com
Wed Mar 18 18:28:05 CET 2020



Forwarding this from a physician friend.  Hoping all are well today and taking good care.

+++++

Hi Everyone,
Wanted to give you all an update based on the latest stuff we're learning about COVID-19 from Korea, China and Italy experience.  This represents information directly from clinicians evaluating disease course and outcomes in these countries on the front lines. Also info from the CDC. Numbers reflect status as of 4am PST, 3/18/2020.

There are some slides that show this info visually. Please feel free to share, in order to spread reliable information.

First and foremost, social distancing remains the most important thing you can do to protect you, your family and the nation.

This is based on live data from early-infected countries, showing that the most stringent and early isolation adherence has resulted in the lowest mortality rate:

  *   Korea   0.5% mortality reported thus far
  *   China   2.3 - 3.8%
  *   Italy      7.2%

Also, data from the 1918 Spanish flu, where tight social precautions in the first 14d dramatically reduced mortality. (The peak is deaths in Philadelphia, where distancing was ignored, and the low curve is St. Louis, where distancing was immediately adopted).

[cid:bf99dec7-03b0-4f1c-b2ee-75d5949163e0]

The reason for early/immediate isolation comes from evidence that the highest viral shedding happens in the early infection.  Some data suggests shedding may be occurring 1-2d before symptoms manifest - before you feel sick.

We believe active shedding occurs for at least 10d and potentially up to 20+days, from the time of infection.

[cid:0eec5f35-e2fa-4437-9ebf-d6130caca2e2]

It is becoming clearer that COVID-19 is spread by droplets. So, NOT touching face, frequently washing hands and staying 6-ft apart is key - whether people are visibly sick, or not.

In all countries, the risk of death becomes most dramatic over age 50.  Nevertheless, in California we're seeing 64% of our infection in 18-64yo, so the mortality/age numbers may change.

In Italy, 37.5% of deaths are >80yo, but 37.5% are 50-79yo.  So, it is not just very elderly population that explains the effects in Italy.

So far, <18yo seem very little effected, in all countries.

[cid:45d78f70-aaba-44ac-a6bc-324ce755221c]
Red bars are China, Blue numbers are Italy.

The 'contagiousness' of COVID-19 appears to be 1 person --> 2-2.5 add'n infections. To put this in perspective, the contagiousness number for ebola =2, for measles = 15, for SARS =3.

The most consistent and reliable symptom is a cough. Fever manifests in ~50%. Other respiratory and GI symptoms are less frequent.

THE MOST VALUABLE THING WE CAN DO RIGHT NOW IS SOCIAL ISOLATION to control spread. Once again, it doesn't matter if you/your acquaintances don't appear to be sick. Right now, we should all assume to be carriers and wait for confirmation over the next 2 weeks.  No one is an exception.

[cid:ff839302-06d3-4bbc-871f-0183046dc34b]

Finally, please remember that 80% of people infected get sick and then get better.  Without becoming critically ill.
So overall, there's lots to be hopeful about and thankful for - but make no mistake that this requires everyone's adherence in order for it to work.  Adherence must happen now.  In a week or two it's too late.

As a last note on what you can do: my own research shows that meditation  - reducing stress through calming the mind - enhances the healthy anti-viral response on a cellular level. It literally changes your immune response in a way that promotes the ability to fight off viruses.

So, WHAT CAN YOU DO?
Start today:

  *   Reassure each other,
  *   Take walks (6 ft apart from anyone not living in your home),
  *   Meditate or calm your mind in other ways
  *   Focus on ways to help (donate to wage workers, buy take-out to help restaurants stay open), and
  *   Discontinue any and all behaviors that separate us
     *   stop divisive politics, blame, lashing out, negative forecasting, and fear mongering.

Follow Canada's example and try "Care-Mongering" instead:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51915723

(thanks to my mom for that last bit of info on Canada)

We can get through this but only if we stick together.

+++++

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